Understanding the point
spread
The first thing to understand is where the
point spread comes from and what it means:
- Linesmakers, as you probably know, set the
point spread - the number by which one team is favored to win over another
- for each game. And linesmakers are divided into two categories:
oddsmakers and bookmakers. Oddsmakers don't take bets on the lines they
publish. Instead, they make money selling their lines to sportsbooks, wire
services and other media outlets.
- The bookmaker is the person who takes your
bet. Bookmakers shift lines during the week because they hope to balance
the action. Their thinking is that somewhere out there is a person
analyzing the same game as you but coming up with an opposing view about
the potential outcome.
- Lines also shift because of player
movement, injuries, the weather and other factors. It's important to note
that the point spread is not a predicted margin of victory. Rather, it's
the number that the linesmaker hopes will generate an even split in the
wagered money.
- Another important point to remember is
that if the point spread on a game is three and the margin of victory is
three points, the game is a "push", meaning no action has taken place and
your wagered money is returned to you.
Now that you know how lines are generated and
why they move, let's show you what you need to do to beat them.
- The key advantage you have over a
bookmaker is you do not have to wager on every game, you can pick and
choose your opportunities.
- The bookmaker puts up a number on hundreds
of events each week. In a typical NFL week, 14 to 16 games are played and
multiple betting opportunities are available on each game.
- You may not have a good feel for all the
games, but you most likely see several where you are confident that one
team will cover. This is what handicappers refer to as an "overlay" or
"getting value". If you find enough of these situations, you can make a
profit betting on sports.
|
|
